by Paul Barrow
What is the likelihood of a Clinton Presidency? Rather good, in my very humble opinion. Barring any scandal from emails, people showing up dead in unexpected circumstances, or Bill spending too much time at the polls influencing voters, she now appears to have the edge over Sanders. The game is very rigged, obviously.
So how can she beat Trump? And what will help put her in the White House?
The Republicans, of course.
Aside from a huge budget committed to negative advertising in Florida against Trump right now, the Republicans are scheming also on how to block a Trump nomination through a brokered convention, in which, if there is not an overwhelming majority of delegates for Trump, delegates would not be held to their commitment to any particular candidate, and they would, among themselves, nominate someone from a whole slew of potential candidates.
Probably any nomination besides Trump would lose to Ms. Clinton, because we would have a large block of Republican voters totally pissed off. However, the likelihood of Trump not getting the delegates he needs to win overwhelmingly doesn’t look great.
Convention machinations failing, which is a good possibility, the Republicans’ next option would be to simply cross party lines and vote for Hillary in November, not because they want a Democrat in office but because she would not rock the boat nearly as much as Trump would, nor would she cause a total meltdown of the Republican Party.
Hillary is, in fact, a much more attractive candidate to Republicans than Trump, probably because she out-Republicans Trump, but primarily because Trump is not an interventionist regime change artist that we know of. The Republicans are tied to the corporate war machine in ways the Democratic Party is not. Hence, anyone who wants to keep the war going, create no-fly zones, etc., and assassinate Assad is certainly much more attractive than someone who looks at the United States as a giant corporation that needs to straighten out its financial priorities and become profitable. Why would any bank want that? Then who would they loan money to? Hillary would maintain the banking and corporate status quo, while Trump is too much of a wild card.
it will be interesting to see how all this plays out.